(Transplanted) Nation - A Boston Red Sox Blog

Seroids, or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Loathe The List

2009-08-01T01:14:07Z

David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez join Sosa, A-Rod, and Bonds as players named on the now infamous list.

But let's be clear about this list (that's not even supposed to exist). It was a voluntary testing program to learn how wide-spread performance enhancing drug (PED) use was in major league baseball. We don't know how wide spread, we don't know if there were other lists, but it is important to remember that at the time, many of the PEDs that players tested positive for WERE NOT banned.

Another thing about the list: It is not a guide to who used steroids in the majors. Some of the players on the ever-blessed list tested positive for items that you can buy at a drug store and weren't banned by major league baseball until 2005.

So, before we judge anybody--and I'm including my least favorite player in all of baseball Alex Rodriguez in this--we have to know what they took, for how long, and why.

To automatically judge based on a name on a list...did we learn nothing from Joe McCarthy? His "list" of card-carrying communists was a farce. This list is a little more serious, but it doesn't discriminate between a legit 'roid user and someone who used something that wasn't banned at the time to get over an injury.

Quite frankly I'm sick and tired of hearing about steroids in baseball. The only people who really care about perpetuating this nonsense is the media. The fans, the players, and everyone else would just like to move on. The media won't let us.

I'd like to see whoever is leaking these names step forward and claim responsibility. That @%*hole should be in jail. No one seems to have compunctions that the way we're getting information about this list is ILLEGAL.

Doesn't anyone wonder why, if David Ortiz was juicing in 2003, his post-season batting average was below the Mendoza line? Anybody else wonder if Ortiz's bat heated up by getting a different batting coach and having Manny Ramirez hitting behind him? Is that so terribly illogical that a 27-year-old baseball player could discover his swing after going to a new club?

Gee. What a novel idea.

Barry Bonds got huge. He was quite literally a Giant. That is not natural. Ortiz had a seemingly natural progression and hey...he's in the middle of what looks like a natural digression.

Here's an analogy for you. For those of you who prefer things to be politically correct, stop reading now or skip ahead. It's an analogy to make a point, nothing more. For those of you still reading, answer these questions: Do you respect Thomas Jefferson? George Washington? James Madison? Do you think they were great men?

They were all slave owners. When they lived, slavery was a common practice, it was not illegal. Yes, it sucked. Yes, it was wrong. And no one is denying that it was a terrible thing and it's sad that America was formed with that institution still in place.

So does that change your opinion of the founding fathers? Should they go into the history books with an asterisk because slavery was outlawed almost one-hundred years later? Are they no longer great men?

No.

It's the same with these players. Habitual juicers...I have more of an issue with them, but if they weren't breaking the rules, they don't deserve to be punished. Period.

We don't call for discrediting of men who had questionable practices before it was illegal, why should we do it now?

It's certainly something to think about. It's not a black and white issue, and it's not something to be judged without all sides of the story.

Do your research. The media will not tell you all the facts and you can't trust the TV. You have to look for yourself. How many people know what that list is and why none of the names are supposed to be released? How many people know that the players weren't doing anything against the rules at the time of the test?

As fans, we have a responsibility to look into the stories we are fed every day. We have a responsibility to read and learn and make our own decisions. As for me, I'm behind Papi 100%. I'm betting it comes out that he was not a habitual juicer, and he might be one of the ones who used something over the counter he didn't even know was a PED, or didn't know it'd be banned later.

The Boston Red Six?

2009-07-17T00:51:22Z

On Friday, the Boston Red Sox take on the Toronto Blue Jays to kick off the second half of the season. On the hill for the Red Sox will be Clay Buchholz.

Many will remember Buchholz from his no-hitter in September 2007. Others remember how bad his 2008 season was, as he was shipped off to the minors.

In 2009, Buchholz has been dominating while playing for Triple-A Pawtucket. But with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny, and Dice-K, there was no room on the rotation.

When Dice-K went down, John Smoltz stepped up. So what do you do with the sixth man on the pitching roster?

If you're Terry Francona, you should put him in the rotation. Does this mean that the Red Sox could have a six-man rotation?

It's possible. If Buchholz proves that he has what it takes to pitch at the major league level again, it will be difficult to take him out of the rotation.

Early in the season, there was talk by the fans/media about Tim Wakefield eventually landing in the bullpen, but he's tied for the lead league in wins (with Josh Beckett).

How about John Smoltz? If he's locating his pitches, he's great, which means he will stay on the roster.

How about Penny? There was the thought he might be traded, but that's not going to happen anymore. Lester and Beckett are certainly not going anywhere. Maybe if Dice-K goes to rehab, they can throw him in the 'pen.

Then you look towards August and September. By then, Dice-K will hopefully be back in good form, leaving the Red Sox with seven quality starters. That is if everyone stays healthy.

As usual, the Red Sox have approached the season with their eyes on October. Slipping in April and May and late-slump before the All-Star break mean absolutely nothing at this point.

A few days rest will do the bullpen some good, and they should bounce back from the issues they've had the past two weeks or so. Bay and Youkilis are seemingly heating up again, and Papi seems to be rejuvenated.

Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have improved their starts lately. They seem to be the aces we expected at the beginning of the year.

Smoltz is looking good. Penny is looking good. Clay Buchholz can only add to the rotation.

As far as Wakefield is concerned, his first ever All-Star game should only serve to motivate and inspire him to keep pitching well.

Would this six man rotation work for the Red Sox? It cuts down on the number of starts, and thus, the number of possible wins. On the other hand, would the extra rest make the starters more likely to win?

We might actually get to see the answer to that question.

The Red Sox don't care if Josh Beckett only has the opportunity to win 15 more games instead of 20, and he doesn't either.

No one will care if this method helps win a World Series. In fact, if that happens, six-man rotations might become the new rule in baseball.

Or maybe not.

The big question facing the Red Sox in the second half is a good one; what do we do with our extra pitching? They basically have great bargaining chips that won't hurt the team if they go.

This would not be a bad move on the Red Sox part. This could put them in prime position to make a great run in October, whether they use five or six pitchers in their rotation.

Mismanaged: Joe Maddon and the All-Star Game

2009-07-16T00:49:33Z

Kevin Youkilis was a few thousand votes away from being the starter at first base for the American League. Jason Bay led the outfield in votes, Boston had the most players selected to the All--Star roster by the fans.

So how exactly is it that the five Red Sox that went to the All--Star game had a total of three at--bats, one inning pitched, and four innings in the field?

Tampa Bay, who did not have anyone selected to start, ended up with three players playing a total of nine innings with five at--bats.

That couldn't have anything to do with the fact that Joe Maddon, the manager of the Tampa Bay Rays, was manging the AL All--Stars and the Red Sox are 6.5 games ahead of the Rays in the AL East standings, right?

I don't think so.

Last year's epic 15--inning affair, managed by Terry Francona, seemed much more evenly distributed. The starters got one, maybe two times up to the plate, and everyone that could get into the game got playing time.

The game being 15 innings long might have had something to do with it, but the point stands. Terry Francona gave every single All--Star their chance to shine, whether they were a Ray, a Yankee, or an Athletic. It didn't matter; these guys were there to be exhibited, so everyone should get their shot on the field and at the plate.

The AL won. Congratulations. Whatever.

This year's game was a huge disappointment. It was boring, the changes were hard to keep up with because certain players were replaced, while others moved all around the field to make sure they weren't replaced.

I can't complain too much about the pitching; that was handled fine, with the exception of Wakefield. His selection was one of the feel--good stories of this All--Star Game and he doesn't even get to pitch?

Come on! He's 42 and was selected to his first ever All--Star team. Fun fact: there are only two pitchers in the American league with 11 wins. Both made the All--Star roster, neither made it into the game. Beckett didn't play because he just pitched, so that was understandable, but not putting Tim Wakefield in the game?

Maybe I didn't enjoy the game as much because the Red Sox were being pulled away from the spotlight as fast as possible by Maddon. Maybe it was because there were no homers and a lot of cheap hits that are just too ordinary.

I have to wonder; had Dustin Pedroia played, would he have stayed in the game as long as non--starter Carl Crawford or Mark Teixeira?

Judging from last night, I'd say no.

I'm beginning to wonder if the only reason Beckett and Wakefield made the team was that Maddon couldn't find a legitimate reason to exclude them from the roster. His bias would have been too obvious had he left the two 11--game winners off the roster in favor of guys in different uniforms with 10 wins or less.

Honestly, this game doesn't mean much to me personally, but the pride people take in playing in this game deserves more respect than that. It deserves more than a manager playing favorites.

I get that having the pitcher batting makes things difficult, but to not even put Kevin Youkilis, arguably one of the best defensive first basemen in the league, on the field for even one inning is beyond disrespectful to his talent and to the fans.

At the end of the game, I switched sides. I started rooting for the National League, because there was no one left on the field for the American League that I gave a rat's you--know--what for.

I might have been more inclined to stick with my league of choice had I felt it was managed correctly.

But last night, I would have gladly traded home field advantage if it meant that Joe Maddon would lose that game.

Red Sox and Yankees: Rivals Go Head-To-Head For The First Time in 2009

2009-04-24T14:47:26Z

The Red Sox/Yankees rivalry is the best in baseball, and possibly the best in professional sports. I was raised to hate the Yankees, I mean, really, really hate them. I have a friend who was raised the same way, only opposite. She was raised to hate the Red Sox.

Why?

Who cares? It's fun! It is certainly not a friendly rivalry, but it is fun to have a "bad guy" to unite against. Its a showdown of good versus evil, the Red Sox Nation vs. the Evil Empire, minor tweaks vs. major, multi-million dollar overhaul.

A rivalry, yes, but most definitely a fun one.

Of course, with this rivalry, things can (and do) tend to go too far. With Joba Chamberlain on the mound tonight, things might get a little interesting.

If you recall from the previous two seasons, there is some bad blood between Chamberlain and Youkilis. Why? Who knows. Fact of the matter is, Joba's thrown at Youkilis four times. Four.

So far, no brawls, but it is getting a little ridiculous. Buzzing a player inside is one thing, its acceptable, its part of the game, but throwing at hitters, at their heads, is unacceptable. When Josh Beckett did it earlier this season, it was an accident and everyone knew it. When Joba did it last season, it was no accident.

If he does it again, judging by the reactions last time, there will most likely be a brawl or an ejection, or both.

Tonight, Chamberlain, who went 4.2 innings with six hits, five earned runs, five walks and four strikeouts in his last start, will square off against Red Sox southpaw Jon Lester. Lester looked much better in his start against Baltimore going 7 innings with only four hits, zero earned runs, and nine strike-outs.

While Youkilis's consecutive on-base streak was snapped Wednesday night, he is still making American League pitchers look bad, hitting .429 with an OBP of .522.

In other good news, the Red Sox starters are all now hitting above .200, with Lowell, Youkilis, and Green hitting above .310.

The Yankees and Red Sox kick off their three game series at Fenway tonight at 7:10 PM, with Chamberlain taking the mound against Lester.

Saturday's game will be at 4:10 PM on Fox with A.J. Burnett squaring off against Josh Beckett, who's original start was pushed back a day due to his suspension.

Finally, Andy Pettite will face off with Justin Masterson in the Sunday Night Baseball game on ESPN at 8 PM.

Marathon Morning: Red Sox Sweep The Orioles With A Twelve Run Rout

2009-04-20T19:46:21Z

Its a good morning when you have a baseball game at 11 and you have nothing to do. Its even better when you get to see a young guy pull off a show-stopping performance on Patriots Day of all days. All while thousands of people ran in the 113th Boston Marathon.

Justin Masterson, usually the long reliever/all around lights out pitcher from the bull pen, got his first start of 2009. In 5 innings he struck out 3, walked 2, and allowed 1 earned run on 4 hits. Not a bad outing, considering he did all that on just 84 pitches. And thanks to the Red Sox very strong bull pen, that one run was the only one allowed all game.

The bats got going in the first, when Jacoby Ellsbury led off with a double. A single from Dustin Pedroia scored the speedy Ellsbury, and a ground out from Baldelli brought in Dustin, putting the Sox up by two.

In the second, Jason Varitek continued with his seemingly rejuvenated swing (its only a few weeks into the season, but I remain optimistic) and launched a solo shot into the monster seats, where fans were alternating between watching the game, and watching the marathon runners make their way through Kenmore Square.

The Orioles scored in the third, and it remained close until the bottom of the sixth. Another RBI single for Pedroia and a triple from David Ortiz made it 6-1, Red Sox.

The bull pen held the Orioles to a scoreless top half of the seventh, and then the Red Sox really got started. The Orioles faced 12 Red Sox batters, Mike Lowell had an RBI double and an RBI single in the inning. Also with RBI singles in the seventh were Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Youkilis.

The best part of today? With the exception of Ortiz, who's average is up to .196, the rest of the team is now hitting above .220. Pedroia got moving, so did Ellsbury, and Ortiz had a good day with two hits, two RBI, and a run scored.

Lefty pitcher Hunter Jones made his major league debut, and pitched a scoreless 9th for the Red Sox, while Rocco Baldelli left the game in the fourth with a mild hamstring strain, and Orioles third-basemen Ryan Freel left the game in the third after being hit by a pick-off attempt from Masterson. He went to the hospital as a precaution, but there is no news yet on when he will return to the Orioles line up.

The Sox now have a five game winning streak, are back over .500, and have now won their 66th Patriot's Day game, which started with a 21-gun salute from the Minutemen, and ended with a 12-run salute from the Red Sox.

"Wake"ing Up The Red Sox

2009-04-17T15:04:31Z

Wednesday, Tim Wakefield flirted with a perfect game, and might have restored the Red Sox confidence in themselves.

I feel like we need the Hitchiker's Guide to Baseball with a big sign on the back that says "Don't Panic" and we really shouldn't. We've got, what, 152 games left or something like that?

It feels as though these first two weeks of baseball, the Red Sox have been trying to start a car. Sometimes the ignition turns over, but it doesn't last long. Maybe Wake's start is the jump they need to really get moving. It does not help, of course, that they had to face first the Rays, and then the emotionally charged and always difficult LA Angels.

Looking at the stats for the first two weeks of the season give me hope, however. They have allowed the second fewest runs in the AL East, the Rays have allowed two fewer, but the Red Sox are one of the three teams with more runs allowed than runs scored. So there is your problem. Well, Dice-K and Lowrie being injured doesn't help either, but truly, the issue is offense.

The Red Sox have just 35 RBIs so far this year. That's 27th in the league. Their on-base percentage is ranked considerably higher. Which leads me to one issue: they can't hit with runners on. While more of the team has moved above .200, Varitek (who's right at .200), Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Ortiz are all still below the .200 mark. Dustin is a traditionally slow starter, so his engine should start going soon, Papi had his first extra-base hit of the season, so maybe that will kick him into gear, and Ellsbury seems to be coming back, he's hit much better in the A's series than the others.

Maybe Wake's brush with history will rejuvinate the entire team. Right now, Youkilis and Bay are on fire. Youk's hitting .472 and Bay is hitting .345, both with two homers. Varitek's average might be a little low, but of his five hits, two are doubles, and two are home runs. He's hitting for much more power than last year and is tied with the lowest number of strike-outs on the team.

I'm an eternal optimist. So maybe all of this is nothing, and they're going to continue to be below .500 for the first time in years, but somehow, I doubt it. Maybe Tek is going to have another bad year, but what I've seen so far says otherwise. Maybe Bay won't hit 30 homers, but I think he will. And maybe Kevin Youkilis will slump after the All-Star break, but I have faith.

The Sox return home tonight to take on the Orioles at 7:10. Penny takes on Guthrie, who has looked pretty good in his two starts for the birds. The Orioles are a game back of the AL East leading Toronto Blue Jays. Raise your hand if you saw that one coming. If Penny can locate tonight, and the bats can get moving, I think the Sox turn it around and get back above .500.

CC Sabathia: Its Not His Fault

2009-04-07T22:42:48Z

Yesterday the Yankees trotted out their 140-million dollar ace to wow the lowly likes of the Baltimore Orioles. CC Sabathia, the reason the Brewers were in the playoffs last year, the work-horse who has thrown more innings in the past two years than anyone, Goliath himself, had one really bad day.

But it wasn't his fault.

It was windy, so the pitches weren't going where he wanted.

The crushing weight of being the Yankee's ace was way too tough, he's not used to it yet.

No, that's not it. Those are excuses. The truth it the strike zone was the size of a postage stamp. That's why he didn't have any strikeouts, if he pitched in the minuscule zone, the Orioles would hit it. So he had no choice but to walk five batters.

Again, that's an excuse. It's because there were too many Orioles fans at Camden Yards. The usually Empire-filled stadium was full of too many people rooting for the home team and that really threw him off.

No, that sounds like another excuse. Here's the real reason that Sabathia had such a difficult time and didn't get a single strike-out all game: he doesn't do well in April. If you look at his starts last April, he was terrible.

Yes. He is not good in April. That's why he allowed 8 hits and six earned runs in just over four innings for an ERA of 12.46. That is the answer. You see, it wasn't Sabathia's fault, it's April's fault. April is just not his month, but don't worry Yanks, come May 1st, I'm sure he'll do better.

While I respect CC for all that he's been able to do the past two years, now that he's a Yankee, he's in the firing zone, so no mercy, and I look forward to a great competitive year in the AL East.

Red Sox Spring Training Analysis (Part 3)

2009-04-03T16:18:20Z

This is the third and final stats-drive spring training analysis, mostly because spring training is now over. If you haven't read the first two articles, check them out: Part 1 and Part 2.

Today we're going to look at J.D. Drew and Jason Bay, then take a quick look at the Red Sox pitching staff.

We'll start with the oft-injured J.D. Drew. I think he's going to have a great year, because he's under no pressure to carry the team like he did last June. He'll bat 5th, in between Youkilis and Bay, which is a great place for him. J.D. Drew has come up with some of the most clutch hits in the history of baseball, no pitcher is going to walk Youkilis to get to Drew, and similarly, no pitcher would willingly walk Drew to get to Bay.

Drew's back will be the main concern this season, but with capable back-ups, Francona will have an easy time giving Drew the rest he needs. Think about it, when Drew came back from his back issues for the playoffs, he hit some seriously clutch hits and helped the Red Sox reach game 7 of the ALCS.

In 2007, Drew hit .321 with 13 hits, 1 home run, and 7 RBI in spring training, then hit .270 with 126 hits, 11 homers, and 64 RBI. Of course, Drew's biggest contribution in 2007 was the 14 million dollar two out Grand Slam in the ALCS , which we all remember fondly as the day Boston fans officially forgave J.D. Drew.

In 2008, Drew's Spring Training posted frighteningly similar numbers: .321 average, 9 hits, 1 home run, and 5 RBI. for the 2008 season, where he was absolutely on fire the month of June and then kind of...fizzled, Drew hit .280 with 103 hits, 19 dingers, and 64 RBI.

I'm beginning to wonder if a good spring is bad for Drew's regular season, which fills me with hope, because his 2009 spring training numbers are down. He hit .265 with 9 hits and 1 RBI.

So what's the projection for Drew this season? It's difficult to say, honestly, because we never know how many at-bats he'll get or how much his back will bother him.

My projection is he'll hit somewhere in the .270-.290 range with maybe 15 home runs, it could go higher if he is rested when he starts slumping.

Next we'll look at Jason Bay.

Jason had a monster season last year, coming off an injury-dampened 2007. How will he look in his first full year as a Red Sox?

In 2008 spring training, Bay hit .231 with 9 hits and 5 RBI. He hit .286 with 165 hits, 31 homers, and 101 RBI during the regular season.

This spring, including his brief stint at the World Baseball Classic, Bay hit .285 with 12 hits, 4 home runs, and 11 RBI.

So what's the projection for 2009? Can Jason Bay replace Manny's bat in the line-up? No. But he can get pretty close. I'd look for Bay to have another 30+ home run season, and bat around .280-.300. That could be overly optimistic, but I have faith in him

The pitching staff might be the strength of this Red Sox team, despite a talented line-up. With three aces, four if Smoltz or Penny come back with a good bit of their past form, and one of the best bull pens in the league, the Sox are looking to make another run at the post-season.

In this I'm going to look at the (current) starting five: Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Wakefield, and Penny. Then, in honor of the stellar 'pen, we'll look at Papelbon to close things out.

Beckett is slated to start opening day at Fenway against the Rays, so what should we expect from him? Will he be good but not great like last year, or lights out like he was in 2007? I'm banking on 2007, since he was never really healthy in 2008.

My projection for the 2009 season is that Beckett will be on form again, pitch about 200 innings, with 70-75 earned runs, 40-45 walks, and 185-190 strikeouts. I'd look for him to post an ERA around 3.15-3.25.

Next we have Jon Lester, who emerged as one of the game's elite southpaws last season, and should continue to build on that in 2009.

The only concern facing Lester this year is the number of innings he threw last year. He pitched 210 innings, and was clearly gassed by game 7 of the ALCS.

While I don't expect him to pitch that many innings again, I project he will throw about 190-200, with 70-75 earned runs, 60 walks, and 155-160 strike outs. I'd look for him to post an ERA of about 3.18-3.28.

Then we have Daisuke Matsuzaka, the heart attack-inducing MVP of the World Baseball Classic. Dice-K has looked good this spring, at the WBC and with the Sox. While you should never count on him to eat innings, or have a low number of walks, he's just looking to have a break-out year. I'd look for him to go about 176 innings, with 73 earned runs, 85-90 free passes, and 165-170 strike-outs. I'd look for him to post an ERA around 3.45-3.65, but don't discount him, it's just as likely for that ERA to settle out around 2.90-3.10.

Then we have Tim Wakefield, the longest tenured Red Sox, and still pitching strong. That's mostly due to the fact he's a knuckleballer, and thus the pitching motion doesn't wear on his shoulder like the normal pitching motion.

So will Wake look good again this year? Sure. He's consistent. He should eat about 186 innings, with 90-95 earned runs, 65-70 walks, and 115 strike outs. He should post an ERA of 3.85-4.00, but this won't matter as much if he can get the run support.

Tim Wakefield is going to give up two or three runs a game. His season record depends on how much run-support he gets.

Brad Penny is the newest addition to the pitching staff, and like many of the Red Sox additions, he's coming off of an injury. Assuming he recovers and gets back to some of his form, I'd look for Penny to go between 170-190 innings, 75-80 earned runs, and post an ERA of 3.20-3.50. I have a wide range here because I'm not sure how Penny will perform. It's a sort of waiting game with him.

And now we'll close this series off with one of the game's elite closers, Jonathan Papelbon.

Paps has posted great stats the past three years, with more than 30 saves in 2006, 2007, and 2008. I wouldn't look for that to change at all. Last year, Papelbon had 41 saves, I'd look for him to have between 40-45 saves this season and post an ERA of 2.60-2.80.

Papelbon is the capstone of a stellar bull pen, and should have fewer four, five, and six out saves this year because the road from the starter to Papelbon is paved with pitchers like Takashi Saito, Justin Masterson, lefty-specialist Javier Lopez, and many others.

With that, I end my stats freak predictions. What's my prediction for the season? I think the Red Sox win the AL East, but it's a tough road with the Yankees and the Rays, so I think we're in for a very exciting season.

Red Sox Spring Training Analysis (Part 2)

2009-04-01T17:03:55Z

A few days ago, I posted an article analyzing the Red Sox and using my stats love to predict the 2009 season based on spring training. You can read that article here, if you haven't.This is the second in what will be a series of articles.

Today I'm going to look at the question marks of the Red Sox, Mike Lowell, Jed Lowrie, and Kevin Youkilis.

We'll start with Mike Lowell, who had offseason surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip.

In Spring Training 2007, Mike hit .170 with 9 hits, 3 homers, and 8 RBI.

In his World Series MVP 2007 Season, he hit .324 with 191 hits, 21 dingers, and 120 RBI.

In Spring Training 2008, he batted .237 with 9 hits, 2 home runs, and 5 RBI

2008 was a down year for Mike, mostly due to his hip issue. He hit .274 with 115 hits, 17 homers, and 73 RBI.

So, how does he bounce back? He's looked good so far in spring training, and the hip doesn't seem to be bothering him. In spring training this year, Lowell has hit .286 with 9 hits, 3 home runs and 4 RBI.

My prediction for the 2009 season? I think he bounces back to good form, maybe not the year he had in 2007, but pretty good. I think Mike will hit around .275-.290 (I give him a wide margin because of the injury) with about 150 hits, between 94-100 RBI and probably around 18-20 home runs.

Next we'll look at the Jed Lowrie. He'll be the short stop on opening day, but he'll have to fight to keep the job when Julio Lugo comes back, because the Red Sox don't want nine million dollars riding the bench.

Lowrie is difficult because he is young, and we don't know what to expect from him yet.

In 2008, he batted .098 with 4 hits and 3 RBI in spring training, then hit .258 with 67 hits, 2 homers, and 46 RBI in 81 games with the Red Sox last year.

So then we have to ask ourselves, how much does spring training really matter? Can it be used to predict a player's performance? The answer is no. It can give a some insight to what a player might do, but the law of averages does not take into account injuries, slumps, and hot streaks.

That being said, Jed Lowrie is a sort of dark horse in 2009. In spring training so far, he's batted .408 with 20 hits, 2 home runs, and 11 RBI.

So how will Jed do in 2009? Good question. I'm going to predict he'll hit around .260-.280, with maybe 80-90 hits. However, if his spring training is any indication of how he'll do this year, he could do much better. It will definitely be exciting to watch.

Next we move on to Kevin Youkilis.

Last year was the first year that Youk didn't slump a little after the All-Star break. The question is, at 29, can Youk repeat last year's stats or will they take a little dip? Again, this is where all the stats in the world can't predict the answer.

In 2007, Youk hit .375, with 18 hits and 5 RBI in spring training, and .288 with 152 hits, 16 homers, and 83 RBI in the regular season.

2008 was Youk's year. He finished 3rd in the AL MVP race and had a career year in terms of hitting.

In spring training, he hit .297 with 11 hits, 3 home runs, and 8 RBI.

During the regular season, Youk hit .312 with 1678 hits, 29 homers, and 115 RBI.

In 2009, Youk played in the World Baseball Classic, which skews his stats a little.

In the WBC, Youk hit .182 with 4 hits, 3 homers, 9 RBI, and 6 walks.

In spring training, Youk has hit .208 with 5 hits, 1 home run, 3 RBI and 4 walks.

So what does Kevin Youkilis regular season look like? If he doesn't slump after the All-Star break, I think Youk can hit around .285-.300, with 95-100 RBI and 20-25 homers. Of course, his OBP will be high, as usual, because he's a tough out, and he should be pretty good protection for Ortiz this year.

That's all the analysis for today. Next I'll look at J.D. Drew, Jason Bay, and the pitching staff.

Red Sox Spring Training Analysis (Part 1)

2009-03-30T23:03:24Z

It's time for a little baseball prognosticating.

I admit to being a stats addict, and as such, I'm going to look at the stats from spring training in 2008, compare them to the stats from the 2008 regular season, and then see what conclusions can be drawn for this season based on this year's spring training numbers.

Whew. Good thing I'm a stats freak...'cause that's a lot of numbers.

We'll start by looking at the captain, and see if his 2009 will be better than 2008.

'Tek hit .320 in 2008 Spring training, with three homers and seven RBI.

In 2008, he hit .220 with 13 home runs and an astounding 122 strikeouts in 131 games.

So far this spring, Varitek has hit .206 with 3 homers and 12 RBI. Maybe the lower spring training batting average bodes well for 'Tek; his 2007 spring training batting average was .108, and he ended up hitting .255 with 17 home runs in 2007.

Prediction: 'Tek will hit somewhere between .229 and .245 for 2009. We'll see.

Next, we'll take a look at Jacoby Ellsbury.

In 2008 spring training, Jacoby hit .209 with 4 RBI and 3 runs scored.

During the regular season, despite slumps, Jacoby finished with .280, 47 RBI, 98 runs scored and 50 stolen bases.

This spring, Jacoby has hit .250 with 8 runs scored, 5 RBI, and one steal.

Look for him to hit around .300 this season, with more runs scored and more stolen bases if he can avoid the slumps. Since this will be (sort of) his third year in the majors, maybe he can avoid the sophomore slump. If he does, Ellsbury will be one of the game's elite leadoff hitters. That, combined with his great defense, should lead to an excellent player.

Now lets look at the AL MVP Dustin Pedroia.

In 2008 spring training, Dustin batted .179 with one homer and four RBI.

By the time the 2008 season rolled around, he stepped up his game considerably, hitting .326 with 17 home runs and 83 RBI.

This spring, not including his brief stint at the World Baseball Classic, Pedroia has hit .370 with four RBI and 10 hits.

Pedroia throws off the stats a little, because so far, he's been a slow starter (he hit .196 in 2007 spring training, then hit .317 for the year). But because of the World Baseball Classic, we don't have all his stats. If you figure them all out, Dustin's spring average is .279--considerably higher than his usual spring training average. That means I have to forget stats and just guesstimate.

Look for Pedroia to do better than his stellar year last year, hitting around the .335 to .350 mark. This may be overly optimistic, but he's got the will and the drive.

That's it for part one. Next, I'll look at Lowrie, Lowell, and Youkilis, and see what kind of years they will have.

Four Big Questions for A Fantasy Baseball Beginner

2009-03-25T17:00:29Z

As I begin my first foray into the fantasy baseball world, I've come up with more questions than answers. Here are a few things I've learned: fantasy baseball is way harder than fantasy football. My fantasy draft is just days away and I have no idea what I'm going to do. I've spent the better part of a week with the flu, so I used that time to watch 30 Clubs in 30 Days, as well as look at thousands of box scores and predictions and fantasy advice. But I still have questions. Here are the four big ones I've been trying to answer:

Question 1:

What's the best strategy? Do you put all your money on the big name guys and have the rest of your team come from late rounds? Or do you maybe spend more on two or three great players, then take all the good middle round picks to fill up the rest of your roster? Is it smart to try and take all the good pitchers so you can force trades in your league for better position players?

Here's why this confuses me: in my Fantasy Football league, you go for your QB and your RBs, because they get you the most points, then it just depends on who you want and when they come up in the draft. But fantasy baseball? There are a million different strategies and I have no idea which one works best.

Question 2:

How far do you trust your instincts? I fully believe that Jacoby Ellsbury and Jason Bay are going to have phenomenal years. I also expect C.C. Sabathia to get injured or not do as well this year based on the sheer amount of work he did last year. But he's ranked high in the ESPN draft order and projected to have a great year. Bay ranks fairly high and Jacoby is not that far down, but tehn comes the question: if you are not going for a name like Sabathia, do you try and take Bay earlier than he's supposed to go to try and get a better price? It is all very confusing.

This also applies to currently injured players, like A-Rod. Do you still take him in the draft even though he won't be playing for a while? Or should you wait and try and pick him up as a free agent? (not that I would ever take A-Rod, but I'm curious.)

Question 3:

For our draft, its an auction draft, and we nominate players on our turn. Here's a big strategy question that I just can not figure out. Do you nominate the player you want or nominate someone to make others spend their money. Like if you want Youkilis as your 1B, but its too early for him to go, do you nominate Teixeira in hopes of getting your opponents to spend more of their money, thus leaving you with more draft power in the middle rounds, or do you go ahead and nominate Youkilis and hope you don't have to overpay for him?

I did two mock drafts and tried both tactics with mixed results. Sometimes I got the guy I wanted, sometimes I overpaid, sometimes someone else nominated them and the bidding got too high.

Question 4:

Homerism. I looked at my team, and I had Pedroia, Beckett, Bay, Lester and Papelbon on my team, and Drew and Masterson on the Bench. Drew and Masterson I don't mind because if they do look good, or if Drew has another month like he did last June, I can throw him into my outfield, but I began to wonder about the others. Did I pick Beckett and Lester because I think they are going to have a great year, or because they are Boston pitchers?

Papelbon, Pedroia, and Lester were all smart picks, I think. My gut is telling me that Lester will have a better year than last year, and Paps is always good, plus, he's in a contract year, which certainly doesn't hurt. Pedroia is off to a good start and I think he'll have another great year, he still wants that batting title, so I would count on him having a high average and on base percentage.

Beckett...well, he is a smart choice, but I can't tell if I took him because of his stats or because he's from Boston. The same question applies to Bay. There are a lot of good out fielders in the draft, and Bay is certainly one of them, but was my decision to pass on others based on the fact that I wanted the Boston player?

Like I said, its all very confusing. But when I took a close look at my tentative roster, almost all the players I want to draft are from the American League. So not only am I a "Homer" I'm also a league discriminator.

So those are my four burning fantasy questions. Next I'll try and highlight a few guys who, in my opinion, will be busts and sleepers.

"Wright" Stuff: Team USA Knocks Off Puerto Rico

2009-03-18T18:14:45Z

Team USA finally manages a defeat of Puerto Rico and makes it to the World Baseball Classic semi-finals on the back of Mets 3B David Wright.

It was a wild one last night, and one of the best baseball games I've seen in a while. Of course, it has only been spring training, but still, this was phenomenal.

Puerto Rico drew the first blood with a solo dinger off of Ted Lilly in the second, but Team USA responded with two runs of their own, including a huge slide and bad throw that brought David Wright home on a Brian McCann sac-fly. Kevin Youkilis added to the lead with a solo tater off of Jonathan Sanchez with two outs in the third.

But Puerto Rico wasn't going anywhere. A two run shot by Carlos Delgado in the fourth (also off of Ted Lilly) evened things up 3-3.

In the sixth, an Alex Rios single with two men on put Puerto Rico up 4-3. They built on teat lead the top of the ninth, when Ramon Vasquez hit one that got by Derek Jeter, allowing the man on second to score and putting Puerto Rico up 5-3 with half a frame left for team USA to stave off elimination.

Shane Victorino led off the bottom of the ninth with a single off of his Phillies teammate JC Romero, followed by a single from Brian Roberts. A line-out by Derek Jeter moved Victorino to third. Roberts stole second, and Jimmy Rollins walked to load the bases.

Puerto Rico brought in Fernando Cabrera to relieve Romero and face Kevin Youkilis, their two run lead in danger of disappearing. Cabrera walked Youkilis on 5 pitches, leaving the Americans down by one run.

Mets 3b David Wright stepped up to the plate, and on the 2-1 pitch, he hit a bloop double to the right corner, bringing home two runs and keeping the Americans in the WBC.

It was quite a game, and if you missed it, you missed the best baseball game since the Red Sox ALCS game 5 comeback last season.

The Americans will move on while Puerto Rico returns to spring training. Regardless of how things go from here, Team USA has already outshone the 2006 team. But with players like Wright, Rollins, Victorino, Jeter, and Youkilis (among many, many others) its hard to see them giving up now.

Team USA will play Venezuela, who they split a series with in Toronto, to see who will will Pool 2 tonight (March 18th) at 7 PM eastern. If you haven't been watching the WBC, tune in now, because things are getting very interesting.

The Beasts of the East: Who Wins Baseball's Best Divisions?

2009-03-16T20:33:14Z

It seems like everyone is making their picks for who wins the AL East, I'm going to take it one step further and look at both the AL and NL East, arguably baseball's best divisions.

Lets start in the National League. The East is a powerful division, will the defending World Champion Phillies again take the top spot? Will the Mets suffer another late-season collapse? Can the Marlins overtake them both? Will the Nats actually look good this year? Barring major injuries and some fluky miracle season, here are my picks for the NL East:

New York Mets (2008: 89-73, 3 GB) Here's why: K-Rod and JJ Putz should ease the Mets' bullpen woes, somewhat. It will at least keep them from hemorrhaging so much at the end of games. They have a good offense anchored by Wright, Reyes, and Beltran, the Mets should be able to make the playoffs this year. If they don't, I give up, they must be cursed.
Philadelphia Phillies (2008: 92-10, WS Champs) They kept most of their World Series winning team together, backed by a great offense with players like Utley, Howard, Victorino, and Rollins. However, the injury bug tends to bite hard the year after winning it all (look at the Red Sox from last year: same team, new injuries). Look for the Wildcard to come from the East this year.
Florida Marlins (2008: 84-77, 7 1/2 GB) The Marlin's are a good young team on a tight budget, and could surprise everyone and take over the East this season. With Hanley Ramirez and excellent pitching, the Marlins are a force to be reckoned with. Look for them to hang around and make life miserable for the Mets and Phillies.
Atlanta Braves (2008: 72-90, 20 GB) Atlanta made some good moves in the off-season, with good pitching additions, but a weak offense will have them trailing the Mets, Phils, and Marlins this year. They are young, so look for the Braves to start contending more in a year or so.
Washington Nationals (2008: 59-102, 32 1/2 GB) The Nats are young. I wouldn't look for them to be great this year, but I would expect a better season than 2008. They'll still come in at the bottom of the NL East, but with a much better record.

Now on to baseball's toughest division. The AL East has appeared in the World Series 54 times out of 104 series. Of those 54 appearances, they have won the World Series 38 times. That's a pretty impressive division, and its only getting tougher. Here are my (mostly) unbiased picks.

Boston Red Sox (2008: 95-67, 2 GB, Wildcard) Boston made a few little moves in the offseason that will have a very big impact. "Bargain" additions of Smoltz, Penny, Saito, and Tazawa make a descent bull pen and good pitching staff into a phenomenal pitching staff with a lights-out 'pen. They have a few young guys to watch, both on the field and on the mound, and have several key players returning from injury in Lowell, Ortiz, and Beckett. This team came within one game of the World Series last year when they were hurt, now that everyone's back, look for them to retake the East.
Tampa Bay Rays (2008: 97-65, AL Champions) Everyone is still waiting to see if the Rays are "for real". They are. The addition of Pat Burrell certainly helped the Rays, but they may have the same issue as the Phillies: health. In order for the Rays to compete, Troy Percival needs to stay healthy, and the pitching staff is a little lacking in depth. The key cog in the Ray's wheel is David Price. He came in and pitched well late in the season, but once there's a legitimate scouting report out on him, major league hitters will figure him out. He has to stand up to the pressure and eat up good innings. If not, the Yankees may take back the second spot, and with it the AL Wildcard spot.
New York Yankees (2008: 89-73, 8 GB) Why, if they spend $400 million dollars on stellar players this off-season, are the Yankees in third? Because they spent millions of dollars on a very small number of players and neglected to give themselves some depth. CC Sabathia ate up a lot of innings last year, many times on short rest. It takes longer than a few months to recover from that and puts you at risk for injury. Burnett should do okay, and the addition of Teixeira will definitely help the Yanks, but without much of a bullpen and with starters who don't always eat up innings, the Yanks may find themselves losing games late. Mariano Rivera, great closer that he is, is also approaching 40, and will start to decline.The Yanks will keep things interesting, and be competitive, making things tough for the Rays and Red Sox.
Toronto Blue Jays (2008: 86-76, 11 GB) The Jays, in any other division, would be a playoff team every year. The loss of Burnett could hurt them, but they still have Halladay and a great pitching staff. They are looking for some players to return to form and some young guys to give them a lift, but probably not enough to compete for a playoff spot because their division is so tough.
Baltimore Orioles (2008: 68-93, 28 1/2 GB) Though the Orioles have a young, good offense, their lack of pitching means they will again be in last place in the division. Look for them to do a little better than last year, but with a division this tough, where they have to face the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, and Jays in 72 games this season, its going to be a difficult year.

News from the Weekend:

The Red Sox locked up LHP Jon Lester for 5 years, and ended talks (temporarily) with OF Jason Bay. Because of his free agent status at the end of the 2009 season and the down economy, Bay decided to wait and see what the market does. He would like to stay in Boston, but not at a cut rate when he could get more elsewhere.

Dustin Pedroia has a minor abdominal strain and will need a few days of rest before resuming baseball activities. The injury is minor and should not effect his opening day status.

The shortstop debate is over for the Red Sox, at least temporarily. Julio Lugo will have arthroscopic surgery on his knee tomorrow and will be out of opening day. Jed Lowrie will (most likely) start the season as the Red Sox shortstop.

Manny Ramirez started his spring training by being pulled from a game due to a hamstring injury. After trying to cut off a double in left field, he felt tightness in his hamstring and was pinch hit for in the bottom of the 4th inning.

The Weekend Wrap-Up: Lester, The WBC, and Boys Being Boys

2009-03-10T03:10:31Z

As I've been watching the World Baseball Classic, which has been highly entertaining so far and which I will discuss in a moment, I've begun to question a staple of the sports world. The butt slap thing.

I'm a girl, we don't do the butt slap congratulations thing, and personally, I don't get it. I mean, isn't a pat on the back much easier? Me, being an astounding 5' 1" could easily reach these guys butts, but when you're taller, you have to reach down further, correct? So I was watching team USA's inning 6 route of Venezuela, due mostly to poor pitching choices on the part of Venezuela, and when Youk came in with a run, when Dunn got his homer, when Youk got his homer after the epic eleven pitch at-bat, as soon as he got around his teammates, butt slaps all around.

I'm just going to put it out there as one of those guy things that we girls will never understand, no matter how much we love sports.

Now that we've gotten the somewhat awkward question out of the way, lets get down to the business of baseball.

As I said earlier, the World Baseball Classic has been vastly entertaining. I've watched most of the games, I was shocked, like most people, when the Netherlands upset the Dominican, and when Australia came roaring back, down by four, to rout the heavily favored team Mexico 17-7 in Mexico City. Speaking of upsets, as I am typing this, Italy has just knocked team Canada out of the WBC. So now Italy and Venezuela will face off again to see who makes it to round 2.

Korea won Pool A in nail-biter fashion, beating Japan 1-0 after losing to Japan 14-2 on Saturday. Australia's win over Mexico was the country's first win in World Baseball Classic history, and it was an exciting game to see. This weekend was good for hitters, bad for pitchers, as most of the teams are using the long ball to put up huge scores, with four games ending with the winning team in double digits.

And now for a few questions.

For Kevin Youkilis: Is this offensive prowess going to continue throughout the regular season? Here are Kevin's WBC stats: 8 AB 3 H (2 HR) 7 R 3 RBI 9 TB 2 BB 2 SO.
If he kept that up for the season, he'd finish with a .375 average and .500 OBP, and he'd finish much higher than 3rd in the MVP race.

For Chipper Jones: What is going on? In seven at-bats he's had one free pass and five strikeouts. This is not looking good for the man they thought might finish over .400 last year.

For Dustin Pedroia: Does the poor performance at the WBC mean anything? Remember in 2007 when Dustin hit under .200 the first month of the season and then turned out a Rookie of the Year, World Series winning finish? Besides, Dustin has still come up with two clutch hits and two RBI, hitting from either the one or two spot,
which is two more than David Wright has hitting from the five hole.

For Venezuela's Manager: I question the pitching decisions you have made, but after seeing Italy handle Canada, I reserve judgment until after the rematch as to whether or not you made a mistake that first game.

For Alex Rodriguez: Could you maybe not make any headlines for the next week or two so that the sports media can talk about baseball and not your hip surgery, or your marital problems, or your club-house manners, or you having juiced, or your cousin who gave you drugs. Seriously, that list is ridiculous. I'd much rather be kept up-to-date on injuries, contract signings, and young guys making a splash at spring training.

No offense to A-Rod here, I know the press blows these stories way out of proportion and beats them into the ground, but still

Finally, on to my favorite Southpaw. Rumors have been flying around all weekend about a five-year, multi-million dollar contract the Red Sox have on the table for young lefty Jon Lester. This will be the third farm boy the Sox will attempt to sign to a long-term deal this year, as both Pedroia and Youkilis were locked up in the off season. The Sox discussed a long-term offer with their eccentric closer Jonathan Papelbon, but only managed a one-year deal avoiding arbitration.

Though Lester has not yet signed the contract, the Sox will most likely come to terms with him and Papelbon either this year or next.

Here's one last thing to leave you with. Picture day always produces a few funny moments, and here are the Red Sox outtakes. Enjoy.

Pink Hats, The Youk Fu, Picture Day and a Changeup

2009-02-27T16:03:41Z

There's a lot to cover today, and since Spring training has officially started, we finally have news! On a funny note, Manny rejected another massively huge offer from the Dodgers. That's his fourth offer he's declined due to either: not enough money or not enough years. Really, at this point, Boras should be telling him to take anything because no one is going to pay as much as he wants for as many years as he wants because we know that Manny doesn't play unless its a contract year. Enough said.

Next on the list, the now-infamous and controversial pink hats. I've actually had several emails/comments/etc about the pink hats, either for or against. So here's the new plan: a poll. Its at the end of the article, so select your answer and we will get a clear picture of how Red Sox Nation (or any baseball fans, really) feel about the pink hats.

Moving on. A few days ago was Red Sox Photo Day. Probably one of the most ridiculous things in all of baseball, photo day never ceases to produce a few funny pictures.While we haven't seen all the pictures yet, here's the first few. We get a glimpse at the "Youk Fu" (to be explained later), we realize that the team as a whole is not particularly photogenic, and we see that Terry Francona looks a little like Ben Kinglsley. Click on the photos to seem them larger.

Here they are, from left to right, top to bottom:
Row 1: OF Jacoby Ellsbury, RHP Michael Bowden, 1B/DH David Ortiz, OF Jason Bay, RHP
           Josh Beckett
Row 2: U Mark Kotsay, OF J.D. Drew, LHP Jon Lester, 3B Mike Lowell, SS Julio Lugo
Row 3: 2B Dustin Pedroia, RHP John Smoltz, RHP Brad Penny, RHP Jonathan Papelbon,
           LHP Hideki Okajima
Row 4: RHP Junichi Tazawa, C Jason Varitek, RHP Tim Wakefield, 1B Kevin Youkilis,
           Skipper Terry Francona

Along with being picture day, it also seemed to be father's day, with Little Papi and Little Lugo hanging out. Here are some super cute pics that made me go "awwwwwww"

Aren't they just too cute?

A few final things to address: The Youk Fu. I would try to explain, but I'll just let Kevin Youkilis do it for me.

The Youk Fu
by beisbolct

Guess the goatee is out...

Finally, lets take a look at the pitching staff. While Wake was a little rusty in his start, Beckett, Saito, Lester...they've all be sharp. Lester has even worked on his changeup a little more and if he continues to progress it through Spring training, he'll have a very dangerous pitch added to his already ace-like repertiore.

One thing you can't argue is that the Red Sox have massive depth with pitching. They have several guys who could start but will likely be in the bull pen because they don't need to start. So that makes the good bull pen even better. Then we have the consistent capstone himself in Papelbon, and I think with a pen this strong, he won't have to come in for any 5-out saves or even 4-out saves, which will keep him full of gas just a little bit longer.

What can I say, I'm excited about this season. I think they have great chemistry in the clubhouse with guys like Papi, Pedroia, Papelbon, Tek, Lowell, and Youk. They all relax and goof off in the clubhouse, but when the game is on, so are they. And I don't think we've seen the last of "Large Father" and "Pedroia Productions". I'm sure Pap's mom has a lot more embarrassing movies of her son that will make their way into the clubhouse this year.

A few final questions facing the Sox this year:
1. Will Jacoby steal his way back into America's heart by winning another free taco?
2. How much Double Bubble will Tito go through on average a game?
3. Will Pedroia attack the next person who calls him a "little guy" "jockey", etc?
4. Will the Youk Fu catch on as a national craze?

Finally, and, most importantly:

5. Will Pedroia ever beat Tito at Cribbage?

Here's the poll: