Lowrie

Red Sox Spring Training Analysis (Part 2)

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lowrie headshot.jpg

A few days ago, I posted an article analyzing the Red Sox and using
my stats love to predict the 2009 season based on spring training. You
can read that article here, if you haven’t.This is the second in what will be a series of articles.

Today I’m going to look at the question marks of the Red Sox, Mike Lowell, Jed Lowrie, and Kevin Youkilis.

We’ll start with Mike Lowell, who had offseason surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip.

In Spring Training 2007, Mike hit .170 with 9 hits, 3 homers, and 8 RBI.

In his World Series MVP 2007 Season, he hit .324 with 191 hits, 21 dingers, and 120 RBI.

In Spring Training 2008, he batted .237 with 9 hits, 2 home runs, and 5 RBI

2008 was a down year for Mike, mostly due to his hip issue. He hit .274 with 115 hits, 17 homers, and 73 RBI.

So,
how does he bounce back? He’s looked good so far in spring training,
and the hip doesn’t seem to be bothering him. In spring training this
year, Lowell has hit .286 with 9 hits, 3 home runs and 4 RBI.

My
prediction for the 2009 season? I think he bounces back to good form,
maybe not the year he had in 2007, but pretty good. I think Mike will
hit around .275-.290 (I give him a wide margin because of the injury)
with about 150 hits, between 94-100 RBI and probably around 18-20 home
runs.

Next we’ll look at the Jed Lowrie.
He’ll be the short stop on opening day, but he’ll have to fight to keep
the job when Julio Lugo comes back, because the Red Sox don’t want nine
million dollars riding the bench.

Lowrie is difficult because he is young, and we don’t know what to expect from him yet.

In
2008, he batted .098 with 4 hits and 3 RBI in spring training, then hit
.258 with 67 hits, 2 homers, and 46 RBI in 81 games with the Red Sox
last year.

So then we have to ask
ourselves, how much does spring training really matter? Can it be used
to predict a player’s performance? The answer is no. It can give a some
insight to what a player might do, but the law of averages does not
take into account injuries, slumps, and hot streaks.

That
being said, Jed Lowrie is a sort of dark horse in 2009. In spring
training so far, he’s batted .408 with 20 hits, 2 home runs, and 11
RBI.

So how will Jed do in 2009?
Good question. I’m going to predict he’ll hit around .260-.280, with
maybe 80-90 hits. However, if his spring training is any indication of
how he’ll do this year, he could do much better. It will definitely be
exciting to watch.

Next we move on to Kevin Youkilis.

Last year was the first year that Youk didn’t slump a little after the All-Star break. The question is, at 29, can Youk
repeat last year’s stats or will they take a little dip? Again, this is
where all the stats in the world can’t predict the answer.

In
2007, Youk hit .375, with 18 hits and 5 RBI in spring training, and
.288 with 152 hits, 16 homers, and 83 RBI in the regular season.

2008 was Youk’s year. He finished 3rd in the AL MVP race and had a career year in terms of hitting.

In spring training, he hit .297 with 11 hits, 3 home runs, and 8 RBI.

During the regular season, Youk hit .312 with 1678 hits, 29 homers, and 115 RBI.

In 2009, Youk played in the World Baseball Classic, which skews his stats a little.

In the WBC, Youk hit .182 with 4 hits, 3 homers, 9 RBI, and 6 walks.

In spring training, Youk has hit .208 with 5 hits, 1 home run, 3 RBI and 4 walks.

So what does Kevin Youkilis regular season look like? If he doesn’t slump after the All-Star break, I think Youk can hit around .285-.300, with 95-100 RBI and 20-25 homers. Of course, his OBP will be high, as usual, because he’s a tough out, and he should be pretty good protection for Ortiz this year.

That’s all the analysis for today. Next I’ll look at J.D. Drew, Jason Bay, and the pitching staff.

Oh Captain, My Captain

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A quick message for Theo: BRING BACK TEK!

You knew it was coming. The Prince of Darkness AKA Scott Boras wants a four year deal for Tek. He’s too old for four, but he won’t take two. Here’s what you do, Sox. You offer him two years with two additional option years. I realize that he’s like an automatic out at the plate. I realize that he’s expensive (mostly due to greed on Boras’s behalf) but I’m worried about the team without him. If he retired, they’d be fine, but if he was playing somewhere else, like Detroit, it would end badly. I realize the Boston mantra is generally “out with the old” but this is not Nomar or Manny or anyone, this is Tek. This is the CAPTAIN. He is the leader, and I’d rather have us bite the bullet on a two year deal with options or a three year deal and keep the soul of this team.

Intangibles are important. Look at the change in the locker room pre- and post-Manny. They were a totally different team after the trade. But that wasn’t just Manny being gone. They played for each other, not just with each other. Even if we brought back healthy vets like Lowell, you’d still be losing the rock of the team in Varitek.

Besides, its not like there is a stellar crop of catchers out there.

On to more free-agents-to-be.

Casey and Kotsay are both free-agents. I feel like we should keep one of them as backups, they both have decent bats (Casey more than Kotsay) and play good defense (Kotsay more than Casey). I’d rather keep Kotsay, as much as I love Casey, because he can play infield and outfield. Of course, with a healthy JD Drew, Jason Bay, Ellsbury, and possibility of Crisp returning, will we need it? (answer: yes. You never know who is going to get hurt. it’s always better to be prepared).

Alex Cora is up for free-agency, and I don’t think we’ll keep him if we can’t dump Lugo off on someone. That’s a shame because he’s a decent back-up we can groom to become a really great manager. Have you ever heard this guy talk about baseball? He is so smart! And Tito loves him. Personally, I’d rather have a Lowrie-Cora infield than a Lowrie-Lugo one. Yipes! I’d like to keep Cora (if we can) and shift the infield around. Have Pedroia play short, Youk play second, and Lowell at third, picking up Texiera to play 1st. Then we can have great back-ups in Cora and Lowrie so the guys can have a day off on occasion.
 

Timlin and Schill are both up, but guys, you need to retire. Do it now when you can go out with people still loving you. Don’t do a Brett Farve. You’re done. Go play golf and look at your shiny World Series rings.

Byrd and Lopez I have mixed feelings about. If we can keep them for a bargain, good, if not…eh.

Up for arbitration:

Paps. We need to get him a raise and an option deal. I wouldn’t tie him
up for years because of shoulder injuries/etc. but he’s a great closer.
Maybe give him the same option Wake has? Or something similar.

Cash. Wake is back and he will likely be too. Tek can catch Wake, but
if we get a new catcher (shudder) we’ll need Cash and his experience
with the knuckle-ball.

Pedroia. Give him a long-term deal (with a raise). This kid is for real, and he’s young. Lock him up.

Lester. Same as Pedroia. In about three years, Lester could be the best pitcher in baseball. Period.

Youk. This one is a no-brainer. Give the man a raise and lock him up for a few more years.

So that’s my picks for the off-season. We need a pitcher. Maybe another bat. And bid on CC to raise the price for the Yankees. (he he)
 

That Dirty Water Never Tasted So Good, So Good, So Good

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Watch Jed Lowrie’s Walk-Off Single!

Sox win. Yay!

Lets talk some post-season baseball. First off, what a start for Jon Lester. The Angels were a tough team, and, as Tito said, “we had our hands full [with them]”. So now the best team (record wise) in the AL and the best team (record wise) in the NL are both gone.

Good, good things happened last night:
–Dustin snapped his October slump by hitting a rocket RBI double off the Monster (or “Monstah” depending on where you live)
–Tek chased down a young guy like a Teddy Bruschi or Rodney Harrison going after a quarterback, getting the out on a suicide squeeze that didn’t quite work.
–Lester finishes the ALDS going 14 innings, scattering 10 hits with 11 Ks and 3 BBs and a 0.00 ERA (that’s right, ZERO point ZERO ZERO. As in goose-egg) Can we just say beast?
–Bay leads the team in  post-season BA (.412), OBP (.474) and SLG (.882) with 7 hits, 5 RBIs and scoring 3 runs. He hit what could have been an inside-the-park home run, had it not bounced into the stands for a ground-rule double.
–Lowrie got quite possibly the most clutch single of his career (more to come, I hope!) scoring Bay for the walk-off single with 2 outs in the 9th.

As with all things, we will take the day to celebrate, then look to the future and the extremely tough Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays. After battling the Angels, I feel like the Sox are up for any battle that gets thrown at them. Dice-K is pretty good against the Rays and excellent on the road. Beckett looked rusty in game 3, but I think he’ll be much better when he faces the Rays. Then we have Lester, who is probably the best pitcher in baseball right now. Throw in Masterson and Oki who are tough, and Manny D and Paps, both with 0.00 ERAs this post-season, and the Sox are looking pretty good, if we can just get that offense going a little more. Now that Dustin got his first hit, I think we’re going to be just fine.

Just for a little fun, here are some post-season pics for your enjoyment! (from http://www.boston.com, click to make them larger!)

cinco ocho.jpgjbay tek.jpg

youk leap.jpgjumping joy.jpg

Finally, because life wouldn’t be complete without some Papelbon antics:

Those shirts, by the way, say “Cinco Ocho: He don’t know how he do…” and on the back it says “He just do”.

Hopefully, Cinco Ocho (Papelbon for those of you who don’t know) will be doing what he do and hopefully we’ll be singing Dirty Water again soon! Go Sox!

A Bay-utiful Morning For the Red Sox

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Okay, yes, technically it was not morning for the Red Sox, but it was for me as I sat, bleary-eyed, surrounded by research paper sources and cans of diet coke, on my couch last night/this morning. And since the Sox are an east coast team, we’ll just say that very early this morning, the Sox took game one of the ALDS.

How did they do it? In that spectacular, down-to-the-wire, saved-by-great-plays, give-all-your-fans-a-heart-attack way that the Red Sox specialize in. The Angels scored first, capitalizing on an error by Lowrie which should have been out #3 but instead it lead to the Angel’s only run of the game. Since the Sox were scoreless, hitting atrociously with men on, I thought that was going to be the game. Not good for a young player’s psyche.

So we continue on, two outs in the top of the sixth, and Youk walks. So here comes Bay, who has struck out twice. At this point, I’m picking up my books so that when they go to the commercial for the middle of the innings, I’ll be all prepared to do homework. Then Bay just rips one, and it keeps going, and I’m standing up, trying desperately not to wake the rest of my house up (lame people who don’t like baseball and a Phillies fan who was done with it for the night) so I just did a happy dance and sat back down and called my dad. Its his fault I’m this crazy, anyway.
 
bay youk.png

(image courtesy of mlb.com)

Lester was sick. Lester was a beast. Lester proved what I’ve been believing all season, he is one of the best pitchers in the league. And of course, Jacoby had a beastly night. I mean, the catches, the hits, the stealing. I’m just waiting for him to score on a wild pitch. From second. JD Drew and Mikey were back in the lineup, and though they didn’t really produce, Mike hit a few that were well-hit balls but better defensive plays.

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(image from mlb.com)

Oh, and something else historic happened last night. A second Angels player got a hit on Paps. The entire post-season roster is now 2 and 40 against the closer. I like that stat, I just want that big number to keep getting bigger.

Day off today, then again in La-La-Land for another late-night game. This one starts a whole 1/2 hour earlier, but since the next day is Saturday, who cares?

A final note: Jacoby Ellsbury, who had a stellar night including a great diving catch seen in the image below, has a new blog on MLBlogs, it’s called “Jacoby Ellsbury’s Postseason Blog” and you can read it here

ellsbury dive.png

(image from mlb.com)

30 Days Has September…

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…and I think the Sox will be there (knock on wood and cross my fingers, do not be angered baseball gods!)

Right now, the Sox are 5 games back of the Rays, and 3 games ahead of the ChiSox/Twins (tied for the lead in the AL Central and for 2nd in the Wild Card) the Yankees, in 3rd for the Wild Card at 7 games back, still wait, ready to ruin someone’s playoff hopes. I know that they are not likely to make it to October, but they are the Yankees, and you can never say never.

A few good things are happening this week: the return of Josh Beckett (hopefully to last year’s sept-oct form), the possible (likely) return of Mike Lowell, and later we might see JD Drew, Colon, and maybe even Buchholz. Also, the Red Sox play mostly at home (even though it is against mostly decent teams), while the Rays, Yankees, White Sox and Twins play mostly on the road (Yay!). This might not necessarily make much of a difference, but it is a lot harder to win on the road and it’s a lot harder for the Sox to lose at home (it happens, but our chances of winning double when we play at home).

I just want to say how proud I am of the way they’ve played this year. The Red Sox have been through the ringer this year (not as bad as ’06, but not good) We lost Manny; Big Papi, Mike Lowell, JD Drew, Dice-K, Wake and Beckett have all had stints on the DL. Youk and Ellsbury have missed a smattering of games with random minor injuries and illness, Ellsbury has been having a hard time batting in the number 1 spot (his bat is inconsistent),  Lowrie, Pedroia,  Bailey, Casey, Youk, Lowell, Lugo, and Cora have all put in time in the infield, with only Pedroia playing daily at his spot. And to top it all off, the Captain has been like an automatic out at the plate (though he is hitting much better recently)

That’s all the bad that’s been the summer months of the 2008 season. Now for the good:

 
pedroiarun.jpg-JD Drew being Mr. June and winning MVP of the All-Star game (where the Sox were well represented)

 -Dustin Pedroia (pictured). Building on a fantabulous rookie season, Dustin has become an RBI machine, with an astounding on-base percentage and playing like he’s at home in every stadium. Excellent fielding, fast runner, and very good at adapting to other situations, he should be a candidate for MVP.

    -Jacoby Ellsbury. Despite his struggles with the bat this season, that boy has wheels. He
    steals bases like a kid snagging candy from a 7-11. He makes great catches, mostly
    because he can make it from one area of the outfield to another in seconds and goes for it     every time.

    -Jason Bay. JBay fits in at Boston like he was meant to play here. He hits, he makes
    plays, and most importantly: we have a left-fielder who’s play gets him more headlines than
    his attitude and his antics. (Sorry Manny, I will always love you, but I am looking forward to
    Bay playing all of September)

    -Jon Lester. In the years to come, he just might be the best pitcher in baseball. He threw a     no-hitter, he’s beaten cancer, and according to Varitek, who is an excellent judge in
    pitchers, we’ve only begun to see what he can do.
 
    -Bailey, Lowrie, and all the other new additions: The Paw-Sox were beastly this year. And     every time the Sox called up a player to the Show, they’ve done well. Especially Bailey and     Lowrie. (Lowrie has finally made Sox fans secure in who was playing at short. We weren’t     worried about the errors.) Plus the players we’ve added over the season, everyone has         been pulling their weight.

    -Youk. Kevin Youkilis should be the AL MVP this year. He’s played first, he’s played third,     he’s been an RBI machine. He’s moved into Manny’s spot and taken on the burden of             hitting after Papi. But don’t tell him about the MVP, he would much rather have a ring.


Now, to recap the game.

bailey.jpg 
Byrd hung in there to get his third win, but the O’s hung around until the last inning, threatening to take over, but Paps hung in there to notch another save. It was not a good night for the bats. We left 12 men on base. 12. Despite back to back HRs by Tek and Bailey, the Sox had a hard time producing with men in scoring position.
A W is a W and on a night where the Rays were idle, it was a good  win to make up some ground on the AL East leading youngsters.

A good night for Boston, despite a shaky performance. That game should have been a blow-out. Up tonight is  Lester vs. Liz.  Last time the Sox took on Liz, they hammered him, scoring eight runs and knocking Liz out of the game in the 3rd. Lester has had a shakier month in August compared to some of the other months he’s pitched, but his version of shaky is losing 2 decisions in six starts, and having one game where he didn’t go 6+ innings. He bounced back after that particular start to hold the Yanks to just 2 runs, walking none and striking out 8. He is 2-0 against the O’s this season.

As September gets going, look for the Sox to call up some players and have all their injured men come back from the DL, ready to make a strong push for October.

Home Run Derby

/ Sara / 1 Comment

Dustin Pedroia hit a three run shot, Coco hit a solo, Lowrie hit the game-winning solo homer. In a six-run game, five runs were scored on homers. Of course, the game also went into extras. But we won the rubber match. As we close in on September and, more importantly, October, these games become more important than ever.

We have a day off today before taking on the Yanks. Good news though. Wake is back! Of course, he was moved up because Beckett is still experiencing numbness/pain. Yikes.

Football season starts soon. Yay!

A Long Road Home

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It has now been five days since my last entry. Dang. I knew I was behind, but I didn’t know I was this behind. What’s my excuse? Between watching the Red Sox, preseason football, Michael Phelps and the Olympics, sleep has fallen by the wayside. Now fully rested and able to snag a few minutes, I will now talk what we are all here to discuss: baseball.

We split a series against the ChiSox, and quite a few things happened during this four-game series.

    -my rock, my best hope (Lester) lost his first game in 2.5 months (that’s just a ridiculous stat, by the way)
    -Pedroia stops his road hitting streak at 29. (also ridiculous, considering how bad the Sox can be on the road)

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    -Clay B. had a really bad (and somewhat unlucky) night, though I tell you what, he was throwing good, they were just hitting better. I have hope for him yet.
 
   -the bullpen wasn’t too terrible. no, really, they were actually pretty decent (what we saw of them)

    -the Sox come home with a winning record for a road trip! 4-3

    -how ’bout Jason Bay being as solid as he can be? I mean, he’s no Manny, but that trade , which significantly lowered the level of stress for the Sox, added years to Tito’s life
    –Jose Contreras came of the DL on August 9th, and promptly returned following an Achilles tear and is out for the rest of the season (his surgery yesterday was successful, however)
    -Jed Lowrie. I want him at short, or Cora, but mostly Jed. Julio, take your time on the DL. 

Other good/funny things that happened over the weekend:

    -Evan Longoria was placed on the DL (no, I don’t wish people would be hurt, but this does help out the Sox) So now they Rays have two key players out for at least two weeks

    -The Yanks are now 9 games behind Tampa, and 5 games behind the Red Sox. Please oh please oh please can they keep losing?

phelps.jpg    -The American’s crushed the World record (and the trash-talking French) in the 4X100m relay in what was one of the greatest Olympic moments ever.
And then the men’s gymnastics team, with ZERO Olympic experience, and not favored to medal at all, had a stellar night to take home the Bronze.

    -finally, Manny is already stirring up controversy at his new post in La-La-Land. Many great player’s locks have fallen to the will of Joe Torre. Damon, for example, lost his Jesus-do after acting like Judas and jumping over to the Dark Side. Now Torre is in the land of image-is-everything, did you really think he’d stop the whole hair cut thing? 11 days ago he asked Manny to trim his hair (wherever he goes, the Manny must be appeased). Manny, who thought he was finished early last night and could not be found for a few minutes (classic), has yet to get the requested “trim”. Here’s some more on the “Dreadlock Deadlock“

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Oh Manny, how I miss you, yet how glad I am that you are gone …(hey, I’m a Red Sox fan, it’s my nature to be contradictory)

becks.jpgBecks pitched a gem last night, racking up the Ks. Problem was, John Danks was almost perfect. Then he whacked Wheels (Ellsbury) on the butt with a pitch and it all went downhill from there. Beckett looked like the Ace we all know and love last night (good timing with that, by the way) in what will be a very important month for the Sox, Beckett’s return to a higher standard is welcome news. Wake is on the DL, Buchholz, though he is actually pitching OK, can’t seem to fool batters, and Dice is heart-attack inducing (though he rarely loses). This makes watching the Sox pitch so much more stressful, especially when Beckett is so close but just a little off. But this resurgence is great, because the means now (hopefully) we have the stellar 1-2-3 punch of Dice, Beckett and Lester, plus Zink, who should be pretty good, and Clay has a lot of potential, he just needs a little work. We still have one of the best (and certainly the most interesting) closers in Paps.

So here’s to Beckett (may he be as dominant in Aug-Sept-Oct 2008 as he was in 2007) and a good road trip. Now, lets hope that the temporary set-backs can stall the Rays out a bit to get the Sox back in contention. (What, I still am, and will always be, worried that the Yankees are going to go on a run at the end and take it all away from us)

Back at home tonight with the high-scoring Texas Rangers (yee-haw!) Good news: Zink is pitching in his MLB debut (13-4, 2.89 ERA, .228 opponents batting average in the minors). That means most of these batters have never seen him before. Hopefully Tito and Cash and all the guys can allay his nerves and he’ll be the heir-apparent to Wake (the guy is 42, he’ll retire eventually)

I leave you with a question. There have been (not counting war years and a few lost to injury) five major players spanning the years to play in Left Field at Fenway: Lewis (whose cliff is now gone), Williams, Yaz, Rice, Greenwell, and Manny. Will Bay be like the few, the proud, the Sox Left Fielders?  Or will he be like the names we don’t mention here, a handful of starters scattered over the near 100 years of Fenway and the Monster? Who knows, he’s a young guy, I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

“Youk” Can’t Stop the Beat

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Well, I was worried there for a moment. My boy, my favorite pitcher, my rock in all the storms, gave up two runs in the first and I thought it was all over.
Of course, then Pedroia got things started with a single, and Youk took one to the Monster Seats. Two run shot, Sox suddenly tie the game. Big Papi singled, so did Mikey. Then Bay took one out of the park, a three-run shot and the Sox are in the lead.

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They would make it through the order in the first inning and go on to win 12-2 after another two-run shot from Youk.

Lowrie was good (again. That guy is a beast w/RISP) The bull pen was good, and Jon-Boy made it to seven, so that’s always good. (Since the bull pen is my main worry, anytime they have a good outing, I’m happy). Could trading Manny have been the best idea they’ve ever had? I wouldn’t go that far, and I’m not jumping on the Bay-is-better-than-Manny bus. He is a better fielder, and his numbers are close to Manny’s (hitting wise) but he’s younger. Only time will tell, but so far, the trade has not hurt the Sox. That is always a good thing.

For some non baseball news, Long-time Patriot (he still works in the front office) Andre Tippett was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame today. (Yay!) As were Redskins (hey, I’m from VA) Darrell Green and Art Monk. Art received a four-minute long standing ovation from the crowd and the Hall of Famers present at the ceremony (90% of the crowd were Redskins fans, but in Monk’s case, he deserved it)

tip.jpg
monk.jpgAll in all, it was a great ceremony (I watched that on espn while watching the Sox on mlb.tv) and all the new inductees were worthy, worthy guys. Now if we could only get Jim Rice into the baseball HOF…but thats a story for another day. Tomorrow we wrap up the series (and hopefully the A’s) with Dice on the mound.

Oh, and this just in. About an hour after they told him he was traded, Boras called Theo on behalf of Manny asking to stay in Boston, they could drop the options on him and Manny wouldn’t cause any trouble the rest of the season. Papi is wearing Manny’s wrist bands, but hopefully, he will recover and be the happy, wonderful batter we know he is.

And yes, I know that title is way cheesy, but it made me laugh, so it stays.

A Brand New “Bay”

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We squeaked by again, but we’re getting on base. Which is better than we did in the Angels series. Maybe next game we’ll start scoring more?

Welcome to Boston, Jason Bay. While I will miss Manny’s antics, I’m okay with moving on. Here’s the conclusion of the game: Jed Lowrie hits a sac fly to score Jason Bay. Jed Lowrie hits a single to shortstop, Jason Bay scores. Sounds like a broken record. And I liked how all the guys mobbed them at the end. I finally felt like they were a team again.

bay.jpgYeah. I think he’ll be okay. He’s glad to be here, too.

“I had a Red Sox onesie when I was growing up,” the British Columbia
native told reporters, noting that his father was a diehard Sox fan.

In his bedroom as a kid? Posters of Jim Rice and Carl Yastrzemski.

(see video here.)

Bad news: Mikey hurt himself running out a single in the 10th. Not good. Good news? It doesn’t seem too serious. Papi was a little out of it tonight, but I think he’ll adjust. JD looked fierce, so did Pedroia and our bullpen. (Thank goodness!) More good news is that New York lost again. Bad news? The Rays won.

You know what I heard on the radio today? John Seibel (or his guest host, I don’t remember) said that by trading away Manny, the Sox had traded themselves out of the playoffs. Are you serious? These are the same guys who said before the break that the Yankees wouldn’t be a force this year, only to see the Yanks go on a hot streak. Now they’re saying we won’t get into the playoffs? We have as good a shot now as we had before the deadline. I don’t think one player can make that much of a difference. Not on this team. Take away Manny and we still have the best captain around, JD Drew, red-hot Pedroia, speedy Coco and Ellsbury, beastly Youk, lights-out Lester, Big Papi, and World Series MVP Mikey. Those guys, especially the experienced, veteran players, will not let that happen.

Hey, I think my faith has been renewed…weird.