Wakefield

The Boston Red Six?

/ Sara / Leave a comment

On Friday, the Boston Red Sox
take on the Toronto Blue Jays to kick off the second half of the
season. On the hill for the Red Sox will be Clay Buchholz.

Many will remember Buchholz from his no-hitter in September 2007.
Others remember how bad his 2008 season was, as he was shipped off to
the minors.

In 2009, Buchholz has been dominating while playing for Triple-A
Pawtucket. But with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, Brad
Penny, and Dice-K, there was no room on the rotation.

When Dice-K went down, John Smoltz stepped up. So what do you do with the sixth man on the pitching roster?

If you’re Terry Francona, you should put him in the rotation. Does this mean that the Red Sox could have a six-man rotation?

It’s possible. If Buchholz proves that he has what it takes to pitch
at the major league level again, it will be difficult to take him out
of the rotation.

Early in the season, there was talk by the fans/media about Tim
Wakefield eventually landing in the bullpen, but he’s tied for the lead
league in wins (with Josh Beckett).

How about John Smoltz? If he’s locating his pitches, he’s great, which means he will stay on the roster.

How about Penny? There was the thought he might be traded, but
that’s not going to happen anymore. Lester and Beckett are certainly
not going anywhere. Maybe if Dice-K goes to rehab, they can throw him
in the ‘pen.

Then you look towards August and September. By then, Dice-K will hopefully be back in good form, leaving the Red Sox with seven quality starters. That is if everyone stays healthy.

As usual, the Red Sox have approached the season with their eyes on
October. Slipping in April and May and late-slump before the All-Star
break mean absolutely nothing at this point.

A few days rest will do the bullpen some good, and they should
bounce back from the issues they’ve had the past two weeks or so. Bay
and Youkilis are seemingly heating up again, and Papi seems to be
rejuvenated.

Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have improved their starts lately. They
seem to be the aces we expected at the beginning of the year.

Smoltz is looking good. Penny is looking good. Clay Buchholz can only add to the rotation.

As far as Wakefield is concerned, his first ever All-Star game
should only serve to motivate and inspire him to keep pitching well.

Would this six man rotation work for the Red Sox? It cuts down on
the number of starts, and thus, the number of possible wins. On the
other hand, would the extra rest make the starters more likely to win?

We might actually get to see the answer to that question.

The Red Sox don’t care if Josh Beckett only has the opportunity to win 15 more games instead of 20, and he doesn’t either.

No one will care if this method helps win a World Series. In fact,
if that happens, six-man rotations might become the new rule in
baseball.

Or maybe not.

The big question facing the Red Sox in the second half is a good
one; what do we do with our extra pitching? They basically have great
bargaining chips that won’t hurt the team if they go.

This would not be a bad move on the Red Sox part. This could put
them in prime position to make a great run in October, whether they use
five or six pitchers in their rotation.

Mismanaged: Joe Maddon and the All-Star Game

/ Sara / Leave a comment

Kevin Youkilis was a few thousand votes away from being the starter
at first base for the American League. Jason Bay led the outfield in
votes, Boston had the most players selected to the All–Star roster by the fans.

So how exactly is it that the five Red Sox that went to the All–Star
game had a total of three at–bats, one inning pitched, and four innings
in the field?

Tampa Bay, who did not have anyone selected to start, ended up with
three players playing a total of nine innings with five at–bats.

That couldn’t have anything to do with the fact that Joe Maddon, the
manager of the Tampa Bay Rays, was manging the AL All–Stars and the Red
Sox are 6.5 games ahead of the Rays in the AL East standings, right?

I don’t think so.

Last year’s epic 15–inning affair, managed by Terry Francona, seemed
much more evenly distributed. The starters got one, maybe two times up
to the plate, and everyone that could get into the game got playing
time.

The game being 15 innings long might have had something to do with
it, but the point stands. Terry Francona gave every single All–Star
their chance to shine, whether they were a Ray, a Yankee, or an
Athletic. It didn’t matter; these guys were there to be exhibited, so
everyone should get their shot on the field and at the plate.

The AL won. Congratulations. Whatever.

This year’s game was a huge disappointment. It was boring, the
changes were hard to keep up with because certain players were
replaced, while others moved all around the field to make sure they
weren’t replaced.

I can’t complain too much about the pitching; that was handled fine,
with the exception of Wakefield. His selection was one of the feel–good
stories of this All–Star Game and he doesn’t even get to pitch?

Come on! He’s 42 and was selected to his first ever All–Star team.
Fun fact: there are only two pitchers in the American league with 11
wins. Both made the All–Star roster, neither made it into the game.
Beckett didn’t play because he just pitched, so that was
understandable, but not putting Tim Wakefield in the game?

Maybe I didn’t enjoy the game as much because the Red Sox were being
pulled away from the spotlight as fast as possible by Maddon. Maybe it
was because there were no homers and a lot of cheap hits that are just
too ordinary.

I have to wonder; had Dustin Pedroia played, would he have stayed in
the game as long as non–starter Carl Crawford or Mark Teixeira?

Judging from last night, I’d say no.

I’m beginning to wonder if the only reason Beckett and Wakefield
made the team was that Maddon couldn’t find a legitimate reason to
exclude them from the roster. His bias would have been too obvious had
he left the two 11–game winners off the roster in favor of guys in
different uniforms with 10 wins or less.

Honestly, this game doesn’t mean much to me personally, but the
pride people take in playing in this game deserves more respect than
that. It deserves more than a manager playing favorites.

I get that having the pitcher batting makes things difficult, but to
not even put Kevin Youkilis, arguably one of the best defensive first
basemen in the league, on the field for even one inning is beyond
disrespectful to his talent and to the fans.

At the end of the game, I switched sides. I started rooting for the
National League, because there was no one left on the field for the
American League that I gave a rat’s you–know–what for.

I might have been more inclined to stick with my league of choice had I felt it was managed correctly.

But last night, I would have gladly traded home field advantage if it meant that Joe Maddon would lose that game.

“Wake”ing Up The Red Sox

/ Sara / Leave a comment

AACY001.jpg

Wednesday, Tim Wakefield flirted with a perfect game, and might have restored the Red Sox confidence in themselves.

I feel like we need the Hitchiker’s Guide to Baseball with a big sign on the back that says “Don’t Panic” and we really shouldn’t. We’ve got, what, 152 games left or something like that?

It feels as though these first two weeks of baseball, the Red Sox have been trying to start a car. Sometimes the ignition
turns over, but it doesn’t last long. Maybe Wake’s start is the jump
they need to really get moving. It does not help, of course, that they
had to face first the Rays, and then the emotionally charged and always
difficult LA Angels.

Looking at the stats for the first two weeks of the season give me hope, however. They have allowed the second fewest runs in the AL East, the Rays have allowed two fewer, but the Red Sox are one of the three teams with more runs allowed than runs scored. So there is your problem. Well, Dice-K and Lowrie being injured doesn’t help either, but truly, the issue is offense.

The Red Sox have just 35 RBIs so far this year. That’s 27th in the league. Their on-base percentage is ranked considerably higher. Which leads me to one issue: they can’t hit with runners on. While more of the team has moved above .200, Varitek (who’s right at .200), Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Ortiz are all still below the .200 mark. Dustin is a traditionally slow starter, so his engine should start going soon, Papi had his first extra-base hit of the season, so maybe that will kick him into gear, and Ellsbury seems to be coming back, he’s hit much better in the A’s series than the others.

Maybe
Wake’s brush with history will rejuvinate the entire team. Right now,
Youkilis and Bay are on fire. Youk’s hitting .472 and Bay is hitting
.345, both with two homers. Varitek’s average might be a little low,
but of his five hits, two are doubles, and two are home runs. He’s
hitting for much more power than last year and is tied with the lowest
number of strike-outs on the team.

I’m
an eternal optimist. So maybe all of this is nothing, and they’re going
to continue to be below .500 for the first time in years, but somehow,
I doubt it. Maybe Tek is going to have another bad year, but what I’ve
seen so far says otherwise. Maybe Bay won’t hit 30 homers, but I think
he will. And maybe Kevin Youkilis will slump after the All-Star break,
but I have faith.

The
Sox return home tonight to take on the Orioles at 7:10. Penny takes on
Guthrie, who has looked pretty good in his two starts for the birds.
The Orioles are a game back of the AL East leading Toronto Blue Jays. Raise
your hand if you saw that one coming. If Penny can locate tonight, and
the bats can get moving, I think the Sox turn it around and get back above .500.

Red Sox Spring Training Analysis (Part 3)

/ Sara / Leave a comment

This is the third and final stats-drive spring training analysis, mostly
because spring training is now over. If you haven’t read the first two
articles, check them out: Part 1 and Part 2.

Today we’re going to look at J.D. Drew and Jason Bay, then take a quick look at the Red Sox pitching staff. 

We’ll
start with the oft-injured J.D. Drew. I think he’s going to have a
great year, because he’s under no pressure to carry the team like he
did last June. He’ll bat 5th, in between Youkilis and Bay, which is a
great place for him. J.D. Drew has come up with some of the most clutch
hits in the history of baseball, no pitcher is going to walk Youkilis
to get to Drew, and similarly, no pitcher would willingly walk Drew to
get to Bay.

Drew’s back will be the
main concern this season, but with capable back-ups, Francona will have
an easy time giving Drew the rest he needs. Think about it, when Drew
came back from his back issues for the playoffs, he hit some seriously
clutch hits and helped the Red Sox reach game 7 of the ALCS.

In
2007, Drew hit .321 with 13 hits, 1 home run, and 7 RBI in spring
training, then hit .270 with 126 hits, 11 homers, and 64 RBI. Of
course, Drew’s biggest contribution in 2007 was the 14 million dollar
two out Grand Slam in the ALCS , which we all remember fondly as the
day Boston fans officially forgave J.D. Drew. 

In
2008, Drew’s Spring Training posted frighteningly similar numbers: .321
average, 9 hits, 1 home run, and 5 RBI. for the 2008 season, where he
was absolutely on fire the month of June and then kind of…fizzled,
Drew hit .280 with 103 hits, 19 dingers, and 64 RBI.

I’m
beginning to wonder if a good spring is bad for Drew’s regular season,
which fills me with hope, because his 2009 spring training numbers are
down. He hit .265 with 9 hits and 1 RBI. 

So
what’s the projection for Drew this season? It’s difficult to say,
honestly, because we never know how many at-bats he’ll get or how much
his back will bother him.

My
projection is he’ll hit somewhere in the .270-.290 range with maybe 15
home runs, it could go higher if he is rested when he starts slumping.

Next we’ll look at Jason Bay.

Jason had a monster season last year, coming off an injury-dampened 2007. How will he look in his first full year as a Red Sox?

In
2008 spring training, Bay hit .231 with 9 hits and 5 RBI. He hit .286
with 165 hits, 31 homers, and 101 RBI during the regular season.

This spring, including his brief stint at the World Baseball Classic, Bay hit .285 with 12 hits, 4 home runs, and 11 RBI.

So
what’s the projection for 2009? Can Jason Bay replace Manny’s bat in
the line-up? No. But he can get pretty close. I’d look for Bay to have
another 30+ home run season, and bat around .280-.300. That could be
overly optimistic, but I have faith in him

.

The pitching staff
might be the strength of this Red Sox team, despite a talented line-up.
With three aces, four if Smoltz or Penny come back with a good bit of
their past form, and one of the best bull pens in the league, the Sox
are looking to make another run at the post-season.

In
this I’m going to look at the (current) starting five: Beckett, Lester,
Dice-K, Wakefield, and Penny. Then, in honor of the stellar ‘pen, we’ll
look at Papelbon to close things out.

Beckett is slated to
start opening day at Fenway against the Rays, so what should we expect
from him? Will he be good but not great like last year, or lights out
like he was in 2007? I’m banking on 2007, since he was never really
healthy in 2008.

My projection for
the 2009 season is that Beckett will be on form again, pitch about 200
innings, with 70-75 earned runs, 40-45 walks, and 185-190 strikeouts.
I’d look for him to post an ERA around 3.15-3.25.

Next
we have Jon Lester, who emerged as one of the game’s elite southpaws
last season, and should continue to build on that in 2009.

The
only concern facing Lester this year is the number of innings he threw
last year. He pitched 210 innings, and was clearly gassed by game 7 of
the ALCS.

While
I don’t expect him to pitch that many innings again, I project he will
throw about 190-200, with 70-75 earned runs, 60 walks, and 155-160
strike outs. I’d look for him to post an ERA of about 3.18-3.28.

Then
we have Daisuke Matsuzaka, the heart attack-inducing MVP of the World
Baseball Classic. Dice-K has looked good this spring, at the WBC and
with the Sox. While you should never count on him to eat innings, or
have a low number of walks, he’s just looking to have a break-out year.
I’d look for him to go about 176 innings, with 73 earned runs, 85-90
free passes, and 165-170 strike-outs. I’d look for him to post an ERA
around 3.45-3.65, but don’t discount him, it’s just as likely for that
ERA to settle out around 2.90-3.10.

Then
we have Tim Wakefield, the longest tenured Red Sox, and still pitching
strong. That’s mostly due to the fact he’s a knuckleballer, and thus
the pitching motion doesn’t wear on his shoulder like the normal
pitching motion.

So
will Wake look good again this year? Sure. He’s consistent. He should
eat about 186 innings, with 90-95 earned runs, 65-70 walks, and 115
strike outs. He should post an ERA of 3.85-4.00, but this won’t matter
as much if he can get the run support.

Tim Wakefield is going to give up two or three runs a game. His season record depends on how much run-support he gets.

Brad
Penny is the newest addition to the pitching staff, and like many of
the Red Sox additions, he’s coming off of an injury. Assuming he
recovers and gets back to some of his form, I’d look for Penny to go
between 170-190 innings, 75-80 earned runs, and post an ERA of
3.20-3.50. I have a wide range here because I’m not sure how Penny will
perform. It’s a sort of waiting game with him.

And now we’ll close this series off with one of the game’s elite closers, Jonathan Papelbon.

Paps
has posted great stats the past three years, with more than 30 saves in
2006, 2007, and 2008. I wouldn’t look for that to change at all. Last
year, Papelbon had 41 saves, I’d look for him to have between 40-45
saves this season and post an ERA of 2.60-2.80.

Papelbon
is the capstone of a stellar bull pen, and should have fewer four,
five, and six out saves this year because the road from the starter to
Papelbon is paved with pitchers like Takashi Saito, Justin Masterson,
lefty-specialist Javier Lopez, and many others.

With
that, I end my stats freak predictions. What’s my prediction for the
season? I think the Red Sox win the AL East, but it’s a tough road with
the Yankees and the Rays, so I think we’re in for a very exciting season.

Red Sox Roll The Dice-K

/ Sara / 1 Comment

The lineups are out, and here’s how  the Red Sox pitching will break down:

1. Dice-K
    He’s a heart-attack inducing pitcher, and with the Ray’s tendency to run, that may cause a little trouble for the Sox. However, Dice-K has shut it down on the road, so giving him the first start in the Trop is probably the best call Tito can make.

2. Beckett
    He looked rusty, but not injured in his last start. And the game still went 12 innings, so even the high-powered, fast moving offense of the Angels couldn’t take that much advantage of the ace. This time he’ll be pitching on normal rest, so expect October Beckett (the 2007 version) to return.

3. Lester
    Jon Lester is a beast. He will get the ball at home, where he is absolutely stellar.

4. Wake
    His record doesn’t reflect how well he has really pitched this year. He’s going to give up a run or two, but in the regular season, the Sox had a hard time getting him the bats to back him up.

5. Dice-K (if necessary)
6. Beckett (if necessary)
7. Lester (if necessary)

I’m going to be honest, here. If I could split myself in two and have the neutral sports mind talk to the Boston sports fan, here’s how the conversation would have been:

Neutral: The Red Sox are in the postseason, which should be an accomplishment in and of itself considering the division they play in and the injuries they have sustained.

Fan: They’re going all the way!

Neutral: It is unlikely that they beat the Angels, but that would be a huge accomplishment for a team as banged up as they have been. Top that off with several inexperienced starters and the loss of Manny, it isn’t likely.

Fan: I just don’t want them to be out in the first round.

So that’s my internal conversation with myself. The Boston fan in me just refuses to give up and believes the Red Sox are going to repeat, but the rational part of my brain realizes that the Red Sox are the underdogs.

Who ever thought  that the Red Sox playing the (Devil) Rays would be the underdogs of the series?

Wet and Wild: Wake Blanks the Jays

/ Sara / Leave a comment

Quick entry here, folks. (Papers to write, homework to do, and TV to watch – juggling between football and baseball.) Wake rebounded in fantastic fashion last night going 8 strong shut-out innings.

Double header today, we start off with AJ Burnett (on short rest) against Paul Byrd, then the night game is Jesse Litsch against Bartolo Colon.

Just for grins and giggles, something to cheer you up so you don’t think about how we’re still 2 games behind Tampa Bay in the AL East:

First, there was riverdance.
Then, it was the rain delay video.
Now, it’s a whole other ballgame:

CHECK THIS OUT!

Wake Up The Bats

/ Sara / Leave a comment

Finally, Wake gets the bats he needs to record a win. And it came on a night without Youk and without Pedroia. Yeah. Now add them back into the lineup, and we have a fierce offense even without Manny.

Wake had a great outing. And he left the game in the lead and they won. Yay!

wake.png
Ellsbury hit a three run homer in the seventh. Uh-hu. I’m thinking maybe the slump is over. And that great catch. in the fifth…head over heels with infielders all around.

e3.png

Ellsbury watches the ball go over the center field wall for a three-run shot in the 7th.

ecathc.png Ellsbury continues to roll after a great catch in the 5th.

Jason Bay has hit safely in every game he’s played in a Red Sox uniform. True, that’s only been six games, but he seems to be fitting right in with the rest of the boys. We win the rubber game against the Royals, and hey, we have a winning record on the road for this trip (just making lemonade here, people)

After a day off, here’s to Youk’s health (which seems okay) Mikey’s health (which also seems okay) and Papi’s wrist (which again, seems okay). I feel like this is a brand new team, like they have a new lease on the season. Now if only the Rays would start losing…